Reliance Jio’s (Jio) 4G feature phone, JioBharat, is likely to drive market share loss among feature phone users for Bharti Airtel, delay tariff hikes for the sector and drive market share consolidation further, as per various analysts reports.
Jio recently introduced JioBharat—a new 4G feature phone priced at ₹999. The device comes locked with Jio’s Sim and pre-installed Jio apps. Jio also announced mobile tariffs specifically for this device at ₹123 for 28 days and ₹1,234 annually.
“These plans offer unlimited voice and 0.5GB data/day…will drive market share gains for Jio. JioBharat’s attractive pricing and reasonable device quality are likely to drive adoption amongst existing feature phone users. While feature phone users at the end of their device life are likely to save 26 per cent on their mobile spends, those who don’t want to change their handset may not switch,” said Jefferies in its report.
Also read: Complimentary Jio Bharat phones given to 250 underprivileged women in Kerala
Airtel: Well positioned
Having said that, it also mentioned that over FY23-26, Bharti Airtel (Airtel) is still well positioned to deliver 15/16 per cent CAGR in India revenue and EBITDA.
“This leads to an annual addressable market of 60-65 million users for JioBharat and we expect Reliance Jio to gain 55 million subscribers by March 2026,” it said.
Airtel has an estimated 130 million+ active 2G subscribers and 100 million+ paying voice subscribers, implying a 40-50 per cent share among the 250 million feature-phone market. While Airtel’s network is better than its other 2G peers, its dominant share in the feature phone market will lead to higher subscriber losses, it said.
“We expect Bharti (Airtel) to witness voice subscriber churn of 17 milion by March 2026 leading to a 1-4 per cent cut to our FY24-26,” it said.
However, Jefferies also said that hefty network capacity additions along with the JioBharat launch underscore Jio’s rising focus on subscriber gains and do not bode well for tariff hikes.
“Hence, we change our tariff hike assumptions of a 15 per cent hike towards end-calendar year 2023 (CY23) to 20 per cent hike in 2QFY25, which leads to a 3-5 per cent cut to our FY24-25 India Mobile average revenue per user (Arpu) estimates,” it added.
According BofA Global Research also, Jio phone at Rs.999 price-point is cheaper than most feature phones in the market and its unlimited voice offering should entice the existing user base.
“The uptake could be gradual, based on how these users look for replacement. If RIL/ Karbonn are able to scale up production of these phones, then we see the phone to have potential and could garner around 100 million users in next two-three years. We find both VIL and Bharti feature phones users vulnerable and see upside risks to Jio net adds.
VIL’s survival
According to Kotak Institutional Equities, the Indian telecom market is currently factoring in the 3+1 construct with the status quo on Vodafone-Idea (VIL) and moderate tariff hikes.
“Vi’s survival worries ease in the medium term. However, survival beyond the first half of 2026 (1HFY26) remains contingent on the government (write-off of dues) and would require much sharper tariff hikes or continued large equity infusions (strategic investors with deep pockets),” Kotak said in its report.
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VIL’s promoters’ willingness to infuse additional equity (around ₹2,000 crore) — likely a relief from banks (given a sharp reduction in exposure and timely payments) — eased the company’s survival worries in the medium term, it said. “However, we still expect Bharti and RJio to gain market share with the pan-India 5G rollout completion.”
It added that potential fund-raise for VIL — improve the ongoing collections for Indus Towers to near 100 per cent, provide comfort on the recovery of past dues (around ₹9,500 crore), and provide incremental business to Indus for VIL’s 4G coverage expansion.
