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Monsoon tracker: IMD predicts ‘normal rainfall’ in July

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that monsoon is likely to be normal in July across the country, barring parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh and south Bihar, with above-normal temperatures expected throughout the month. 

In a virtual press conference here, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the July rains will help wipe out rainfall deficiencies witnessed in June, according to a report published by the news agency PTI.

“The monthly rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during July 2023 is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 percent of LPA) and most probably within the positive side of the normal,” Mohapatra said.

In June, a total of 16 states and union territories received deficient rainfall in June, with Bihar and Kerala reporting large deficits at 69 percent and 60 percent below normal respectively.

Large states including Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana also received less rainfall in June, the first month of the southwest monsoon season

“In 16 of the 25 years when June rainfall was below normal, July rainfall has been reported normal,” the IMD official added. 

He also said that 377 weather stations across the country reported heavy rainfall events – 115.6 mm-204.5 mm per day – in June, while 62 stations reported extremely heavy rains, amounting to more than 204.5 mm, PTI reported. 

In its latest bulletin, the weather office said the spatial distribution suggests that normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over most areas of central India and adjoining south peninsular and east India and some areas of Northeast and Northwest India. 

“Below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of the northwest, northeast, and southeast peninsular India,” it said. 

The senior official from the weather department said that India is expected to receive an average amount of rainfall in July, despite the potential emergence of the El Nino weather pattern. This prediction encourages farmers to expedite the planting of crops, which has been progressing slowly due to inconsistent rainfall in June.

The monsoon season, which is crucial for India’s $3 trillion economy, typically provides around 70% of the necessary rainfall to irrigate farms and replenish reservoirs and aquifers. Additionally, it brings relief from intense summer heatwaves.

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Updated: 01 Jul 2023, 07:43 AM IST

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